The Light Bulb Case- Part 2

The Light Bulb Case- Part 2

Incubation Business Launch

April 3, 2022

Light Bulb Experimentation Part Two


Experiment related viability that answers: “can we make money at this?”.

  • Rob Miles: No, the cost right out of the gate is too expensive and negates purchase. The overall efficiency is not worth it. Regardless of how much you make a year a light bulb lasting a lifetime is still not worth it because there are bulbs on the shelf lasting 10 years and costs less than $7. The efficiency is not worth the cost out of the gate either.
  • Jake Clifford: No, if you look at a pair of boots for example, no one buys ones that will last almost a lifetime. They're not going to buy a light bulb for $179 let alone a pair of boots. The average consumer doesn't see the worth, so they aren’t willing to spend that kind of money on anything if it's something they don't need or don't find important. Frankly, people don't even notice the little gauges on the side of boxes that say you’ll save $7 a month and, nobody checks. The only person I know who compares efficiency is my Gram and it's because she has nothing else better to do.
  • Lillian Bartlett: I do not think most people would pay over $100 for a light bulb except a select few, such as those with a large amount of money and those who plan to live where they are for a long time.
  • Beth Mitchell: I would see the price and not want to spend that amount. How do I know it will really last for 99 years? Can I trust it? Spending $179.99 on one light bulb just does not seem economical regardless of the longevity and environmental benefits. No light bulb should cost that much regardless of the lifespan. A warranty would help with the trust factor.
  • Chad Mitchell: Other countries have similar light bulbs that last this long because they needed things to last. Many things in the past used to be made to last longer and the cost of this seems as if it is just a scam. It should not cost $179.99. The duration would be worth it, but not at that price.
  • Michael Jolley: I think $180 for a light bulb is outrageous. The average house in America has 40 light bulbs. That would mean to replace to all the lights in my home it would be $7,200. An LED lightbulb lasts approximately 11 years if it was left on for 12 hours per day. So, you’d have to change all 40 lightbulbs 10 times… with the average light bulb costing $5. That means in the span of 100 years I’d spend $2000 on LED bulbs. In all honesty if a lightbulb was that hard to change you could pay someone to change them for you, and most likely STILL be under the cost of $7,200.

            The idea of this light bulb is overwhelmingly not supported by any of my focus group members due to the “outrageously” high cost. It is also viewed that regardless of the money an individual makes, they would still not buy the light bulb. Although the view of the bulbs cost is negative, many noted that they admired the lifespan.

  • 100% of interviewed individuals felt they would not support this product due to the cost alone.
  • I observed that: consumers are very unlikely to consider positive factors of a product when the cost of the products is viewed as “too expensive”.
  • From that I learned: price per product is one of the number one factors in consumer decision making, often regardless of income level.
  • Therefore: we would have to find a way to substantially lower the cost per unit of this product to sell it on the market.
  • The resulting evidence quality is weak as people only said how they feel, and I did not get to test what they do. In addition, the interviewees gave their opinions not all facts.
  • The hypothesis confidence level is ranked not confident at all indicating that more experiments need to occur since only one has occurred resulting in weak evidence for an interview.


Experiment related to desirability answering: “do people want this?”

  • Rob Miles: This has some weight to it. There are some light bulbs such as high exterior ones that would be awesome to not have to change because of the pain. The cost still prohibits that because it is so high. If the cost was $25-$40 for the bulb it would be worth not having to change it ever.
  • Jake Clifford: Most people live paycheck to paycheck just because they don't have the forethought to save money let alone worry about changing a light bulb. It's going to be more than a few weeks when they have absolutely no foresight into that matter. They're not gaining anything. They're not worried about when they must change it next. When that happens it'll probably stay out for kind of a long period of time and eventually when they find a pack of light bulbs somewhere, they'll change it. Until you can make it more cost-effective no one will try the $180 product.
  • Lillian Bartlett: I agree that there could be a small market for these light bulbs since there will be zero maintenance required and there are certain products that people will pay the extra money for the convenience, especially those who have plenty of money to spend. I also think if someone is building a home to sell, having light bulbs they will never need to change could be a nice little addition sellers might do.
  • Beth Mitchell: Depending on where you must change the light bulb, it’s not hard to do at all. A lamp would be easy to change. If the light bulb must be changed in a high location that is hard to get to, this product could be a solution to that problem.
  • Chad Mitchell: The price would still make it quite tough. If price was not an issue it would be worth the ease of never having to change it. At that cost though, it would just be easier, or maybe less expensive, to hire someone at minimum wage to change the hard to access light bulbs.
  • Michael Jolley: Not under these cost savings, as there is no cost savings. What about people who move? Do they take these “lifetime bulbs” with them? Placing LED bulbs into the sockets? Also, this “mute” fluorescent is very concerning, as it is “mute” so it’s not even as bright as a 60w LED lightbulb, the homeowner may even need more bulbs.

         

  • 60% of interviewed individuals felt that the ease of not having to change light bulbs, especially hard to access ones, would be favorable, although 80% believed that the “cost savings” would not be enough to justify the purchase.
  • I observed that: Consumers value ease and would like not having to change bulbs but would need a significant cost savings.
  • From that I learned: Price per product is still the number one contributing factor in buy the product.
  • Therefore: we would have to find a way to substantially lower the cost per unit of this product to sell it on the market.
  • The resulting evidence quality is weak as people only said how they feel, and I did not get to test what they do. In addition, the interviewees gave their opinions not all facts.
  • The hypothesis confidence level is ranked not confident at all indicating that more experiments need to occur since only one has occurred resulting in weak evidence for an interview.

 

Decide

            The overall hypothesis confidence level shows that there could be pivot potential for two main reasons. The first reason being that the unclear insights from lack of experiments points towards the continuation of testing. More experimentation would most likely bring insights that would allow for product pivoting. Second, the viability and desirability hypotheses point towards the favorability of the products ease and lifespan, but shows the price is too high. With the correct scaling and manufacturing partners, lowering the price point of the product substantially, even if that means compromising some of the lifespan, would greatly increase customer desirability. Some focus group members even pointed towards the willingness to pay upwards of $40 per bulb if the lifespan and ease were still a factor.

            In my personal humble opinion, I believe the action that should be taken would be to kill this product idea even before more time was spend on extra experimentation. The original and extensive research indicated that the bulb would have to be priced at $179.99 because of the manufacturing costs associated with it. To get the price point down to $40 per bulb you would need to cut it more than 75% to reach that goal as that would be a huge feat in itself. The fact the is still a need to track down a manufacturing partner makes be question how extensive the research has been and how accurate the price projections are. Regardless the numbers, accurate or not, are too far apart to succeed. The risk of this business ideas is just too great to project it moving forward in the competitive market.

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